To say economists are a very conservative bunch doesn’t even scratch the surface. However, their overly cautious descriptions of what most call “an economic slowdown” are so far from the truth, it really does hurt.
We’ve come a long way from the soup kitchens providing meals to the homeless during the Great Depression of the 1930’s, but from an economic perspective, we’ve sunk to new lows never seen – even back those 80-plus-years.
Although recently the Canadian federal government announced unemployment has dropped slightly, the reality of the situation came in their findings that the number of people that just stopped looking for work has risen.
I see the horrid sad stories of people struggling to find their way, as I build the teams in my new business. I’ve put out a handful of postings for specific roles we’re looking to fill as we gear up for our initial round of hiring, and within the time frame it takes to order and receive a pizza, I’ve received literally hundreds of responses.
Many of the replies show the exasperation and desperation of the underemployed and the unemployed – two key groups facing the toughest challenges in this economy.
Such as the person who starts off her cover letter with: “If this is an agency, please do not contact me and if this is a legit position, I am truly interested.” Her desperation and understandable frustration with the sorry state of our contracted out economy sums up her thoughts: “[I’ve been] doing various contract positions and am now looking for a position with stability.”
One of the many reasons our economy is in such tatters is because of the proliferation of recruitment firms hiring people on a project basis, instead of placing people in full-time permanent positions. Sure it’s better for the recruitment firm, as they get a regular take on re-using people as contracts run their course.
However, as a contract runs out, and the poor person in that role doesn’t know if or when they will ever work again, they don’t purchase the big ticket items which fuel the economy, and it continues to decline.
Worse yet, as they continue to look for stable employment, but are only offered temporary contract gigs, they lose faith in the economy, and become bitter and angry, as is echoed in this person’s cover letter – yes that is an actual quote from a cover letter I received to one of our posted positions.
Economists have to get their heads out of the sand, and wake up to the reality of our dismal depression – yes that’s what it is – and start calling it just that.
We’ve been in this “economic slowdown” more than the required time to define it as a depression, and we haven’t seen this many people out of work and desperate since the Great Depression over 80-years-ago.
I understand the fear that economists are trying to avoid, by NOT using the “D” word – but until they start calling a spade a spade, the world will continue to spiral out of control, because governments and big business will continue to heed their conservative interpretations, and that’s not good for any of us – employed or not.
The deflation impacting the labour market is the great unspoken fact of our time. Just check out the "labor force participation rate" - it is more accurate than the unemployment index. It is at its lowest in nearly 30 years. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
ReplyDeleteIn hiring right now, there is a very dangerous negative feedback loop underway.
As more people are looking, higher and higher walls are erected to keep those hundreds or thousands of resumes off the hiring managers' desk, often using pattern matching software. This causes fewer quality candidates to actually get through the filter to the hiring manager. The hiring manager sees this as there being a deficit of quality people. Even now, I hear hiring managers say "I can't find good people".
That's amazing feedback when you think about it, and shows there is a serious systemic problem right now.
In systems performance terms, this is called "congestive collapse", and it is a very real danger for any company who wants to find exceptional candidates using the normal technique of post a position and filter the resumes.
It is also my hypothesis that the UI system encourages anyone to apply to nearly anything to demonstrate they are looking and thus qualify for benefits. Which amplifies the negative loop.
As a recent hiring manager myself at a start-up, I was mandated to go to the hiring boards. I rapidly discovered I was working at a 1,000:1 level of applicants to hire for key positions. This is not survivable for any manager, let alone a start-up manager who is doing 3 (or more) jobs simultaneously. In my effort to scale the development team from 8 to 75, I managed to get that down to 2-3:1 through a structured process that specifically hunted for excellence.
It is not easy, but cutting through the noise to find the quality signal can be done.